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Research Reports |
| Title: | Forecasting North Dakota Fuel Tax Revenue and License and Registration Fee Revenue |
| Authors: | Mark Berwick and Donald Malchose |
| Publication Date: | Jan 2012 |
| Report #: | DP-249 |
| TRID #: | 01446503 |
| Keywords: | fees, forecasting, fuel taxes, literature reviews, registration fees, revenues, surveys |
| Type: | Research Report – Department Publications |
A literature review was conducted to determine the level and methods of forecasting used by states for fuel tax revenue collections and license and registration fees. The literature revealed that most state DOTs use statistical or econometric models to forecast revenue of fuel tax and license and registration fee revenue. A survey was conducted to ask states about their models. All states responding to the survey use a statistical or econometric model to forecast. It was also found that most states have some problem with forecasting error in times of economic recession or other economic shock. The survey revealed results similar to the literature review and also revealed that states model cash flow in an attempt to estimate cash balances. Models were fit to the North Dakota data to estimate fuel tax and license and registration fees. The models provide reasonable forecasts, however the model for the license and registration fees does not seem to be as good a fit as the fuel model because of variations in the data.
Berwick, Mark, and Donald Malchose. Forecasting North Dakota Fuel Tax Revenue and License and Registration Fee Revenue, DP-249. North Dakota State University, Fargo: Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute, 2012.
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